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WORLDWIDE Chapter 149 Message Board Forum Index » Pocket Watch Value Line for Collectors » watch estimates Goto page Previous  1, 2, 3, 4, 5  Next
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PostPosted: Sun Jan 06, 2019 2:19 pm Reply with quote
KennyHabeeb
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Joined: 22 Jan 2015
Posts: 1021




C'mon Jon! Rolling Eyes Why be contrary? That's been done.

What's your starting point? You're not picking a number out of thin air for anything! Ignore the market and see how many things you sell. If you ignore the market and offer someone $200. for something because YOU alone think it should be worth that, and the seller knows the sales history, whose wrong? And does it even matter?


Last edited by KennyHabeeb on Mon Jan 07, 2019 12:09 am; edited 1 time in total
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PostPosted: Sun Jan 06, 2019 3:04 pm Reply with quote
Jon
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Simple Simon

I have my knowledge as to VALUE; too much I pass, too little I swoop!

Over 66 years of experience and I have seen just about all markets.

Occasionally, I will pay up for a GOTFW or some variance I lack.

Last, don't forget the originality issue, condition of movement dial and case PLUS all THE ADD ONS.

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SUPPORT ETHICAL PRACTICES IN HOROLOGY--Keep watches original--DO NOT SWITCH, PART OUT OR "CREATE" PW abortions!
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PostPosted: Sun Jan 06, 2019 10:35 pm Reply with quote
Bryan
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As Ken pointed out earlier current comps are the dealer's anchor to the current FMV of any item (accounting for condition and other factors that JH pointed out)

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PostPosted: Sun Jan 06, 2019 11:48 pm Reply with quote
geno
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The more you know the less you need a comp to come up with the price you want to pay and not what some other guy who may have paid a stupid price paid. Knowledge will tell you when a comp is overpriced and therefore has no relevance. If you don't know what something is worth to you then a comp is not going to help. Geno
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PostPosted: Mon Jan 07, 2019 7:56 am Reply with quote
Jon
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Kenny, I routinely get calls on values and rarity--it is a weekly (and sometimes daily) exercise.

I guess experience speaks! Wink

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Jon "the truth" Hanson
Founder and President of Chapter 149--the leading horological collectors' club!
American Horologe Co -- America's Most Respected Name
SUPPORT ETHICAL PRACTICES IN HOROLOGY--Keep watches original--DO NOT SWITCH, PART OUT OR "CREATE" PW abortions!
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PostPosted: Mon Jan 07, 2019 8:01 am Reply with quote
Bryan
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geno wrote:
The more you know the less you need a comp to come up with the price you want to pay and not what some other guy who may have paid a stupid price paid. Knowledge will tell you when a comp is overpriced and therefore has no relevance. If you don't know what something is worth to you then a comp is not going to help. Geno


Knowledge of what, specifically?

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PostPosted: Mon Jan 07, 2019 10:11 am Reply with quote
KennyHabeeb
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They both talk like they are untethered from the market, Bryan. I'll give them this: each has so much of some widgets that in fact they might have some sway in that market, as in a "corner," but the market was determined long ago by their predecessors and by the entrance of the World Wide Web.

If both unleashed their entire collections on the market at once, there might be some destabilization, but the action wouldn't turn any $5000. item into a $5. value in the market because the market is still larger than they are (see Hunt Brothers).

So they're rattling pocket change, blowing hot air, however you want to label it.
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PostPosted: Mon Jan 07, 2019 11:22 am Reply with quote
geno
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Knowledge of this crazy erratic market, the venue of the comp and all the reasons Jon stated. The sane watch can and does bring different results how do you know what is the real price, the only thing you really know is what it is worth to you so basing your price on a comp shows lack of real knowledge. The weaker your knowledge the more you need to rely on comp so rely on then and see what happens. Neil and I gave you specific prices on vastly different comps, of the same watches, what would any of those prices mean to you. If you are that lacking in self confidence in your ability to price then go grab a comp, you still have to know what the price means. Geno
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PostPosted: Mon Jan 07, 2019 12:19 pm Reply with quote
KennyHabeeb
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Joined: 22 Jan 2015
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You base your values on comps, Geno. Not any one comp, but the total sales comps you have ever seen of a particular watch, plus the sales comps of watches that you favorably compare in value to that one. It's a complicated thing going on in your brain, but as I said above, and you ignored, you are NOT disconnected from market forces. The market was there before you were born. Even before Jon started buying.


Last edited by KennyHabeeb on Mon Jan 07, 2019 4:53 pm; edited 1 time in total
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PostPosted: Mon Jan 07, 2019 12:59 pm Reply with quote
Bryan
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We'll agree to disagree. Use of comps has served me well over the last 15 yrs riding this down market and I intend to continue using them, throwing out the outliers and correcting for conditions and other factors like net gold weight Shocked

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PostPosted: Mon Jan 07, 2019 4:38 pm Reply with quote
StephanG
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To me as an outsider the underlying theme in this exchange is a good illustration of the difference between dealing and collecting.

As a dealer you have to know the market intimately lest you pay to much for something or miss a bargain.

As a collector such things have less importance because you are not buying to flip and your collection, what you have and what you need has a greater influence.

In then comes down to how much you want the thing and you may pay over the odds to get something.

Likely in the real world a mix of the two is at play each time you look at something and the rules you apply depend on where the particular item sits on the day in question.

Since everyone's collection is different and some deal more than others the rules change for each person.

I doubt there is any set method that would work for everyone.

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PostPosted: Tue Jan 08, 2019 1:42 pm Reply with quote
Jon
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Where does one find comps or rely rare items?

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Jon "the truth" Hanson
Founder and President of Chapter 149--the leading horological collectors' club!
American Horologe Co -- America's Most Respected Name
SUPPORT ETHICAL PRACTICES IN HOROLOGY--Keep watches original--DO NOT SWITCH, PART OUT OR "CREATE" PW abortions!
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PostPosted: Tue Jan 08, 2019 2:16 pm Reply with quote
KennyHabeeb
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Joined: 22 Jan 2015
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Rarity doesn't always equate to high value, but maybe you should ask Geno. Wink
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PostPosted: Tue Jan 08, 2019 2:53 pm Reply with quote
Jon
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I never said it did; I do not need to ask anyone about anything.

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Jon "the truth" Hanson
Founder and President of Chapter 149--the leading horological collectors' club!
American Horologe Co -- America's Most Respected Name
SUPPORT ETHICAL PRACTICES IN HOROLOGY--Keep watches original--DO NOT SWITCH, PART OUT OR "CREATE" PW abortions!
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PostPosted: Tue Jan 08, 2019 7:50 pm Reply with quote
Jon
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Location: Boston, Ma




value equals demand and rarity,

One can have high rarity and with little or no demand, thus; low value.

There are MANY common(un rare) pieces that because of demand they are expensive and (in my opinion) items from which to stay away.

Which would you buy? Oh, I forgot, you might have to call me for comps! Wink Laughing

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Jon "the truth" Hanson
Founder and President of Chapter 149--the leading horological collectors' club!
American Horologe Co -- America's Most Respected Name
SUPPORT ETHICAL PRACTICES IN HOROLOGY--Keep watches original--DO NOT SWITCH, PART OUT OR "CREATE" PW abortions!
View user's profile Send private message Visit poster's website
watch estimates
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