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PostPosted: Sat Jan 05, 2019 1:40 pm Reply with quote
geno
Chapter Member
Joined: 28 Oct 2005
Posts: 1675




Kenny I can't explain it any better than I did Comps are meaningless. At the recent Moran sale there were plenty of good watches that were worth a lot more in the past so who sets the price, the current buyers. I looked at the watches and decided what I wanted to pay. They could have sold higher or lower, I didn't look for current comps because for the most part there are none.
Just becauseI know something was worth $5000 in the past has no basis on what I will pay today. The Waltham split I bought was bought by my friend for $3500, he sold it for $7500, it brought 12,000 at the Demesy sale and I paid $5000 so what good are comps. Gold value is different as that can be easily figured out. Good luck to anybody buying anything on Comps. We will just have to agree to disagree. Geno
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PostPosted: Sat Jan 05, 2019 1:56 pm Reply with quote
KennyHabeeb
Chapter Member
Joined: 22 Jan 2015
Posts: 1021




What specifically do you base your purchases on, Geno? Are you rolling dice with numbers to see what comes up? Are you using a Quiji board? Why did you pay $5,000 for that piece? What was the sense in that?
You are not crazy. $5,000 is nothing to sneeze at.

K
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PostPosted: Sat Jan 05, 2019 2:20 pm Reply with quote
geno
Chapter Member
Joined: 28 Oct 2005
Posts: 1675




Experience and the knowledge of the market as it now works for pieces I want to flip. Pieces I like I pay my price, not based on a stupid comp of what some other guys were willing to pay. Do you run to comps when you are buying? The tone of this conversation is starting to change do you really want to go down this road? No need to get sarcastic with the Ouiji crap. I don't need to justify how I do my pricing to you, but for the last time it is not based on comps. Comps are for people with little knowledge and you can get killed basing your buying on them. If you can't grasp what i am saying so be it, I 'm done explaining. Geno
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PostPosted: Sat Jan 05, 2019 3:07 pm Reply with quote
KennyHabeeb
Chapter Member
Joined: 22 Jan 2015
Posts: 1021




Geno, I also don't care too much about individual comp sales, but I am not rolling dice when I come up with an auction bid.

You obviously don't ignore all sales. You just named a bunch! Of course you don't put much stock into them, but they're noted. Your knowledge is based on an entire history of sales for that thing. Otherwise you wouldn't know where to start! That's all I'm saying. Nothing to get heated about. I don't want you driving down to the Coastside with a weapon.


Last edited by KennyHabeeb on Sat Jan 05, 2019 10:36 pm; edited 1 time in total
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PostPosted: Sat Jan 05, 2019 3:58 pm Reply with quote
Neilywatch
Chapter Member
Joined: 16 Oct 2010
Posts: 5382




Kenny -

Let me step in here with my own experience.

I bid on 4 Watches at John Moran - All Walthams - .

I based my bids on "comps" prices paid at previous auctions.

Lot 5 was a calendar watch built on a broadway movt. I missed out on one at $975, when the markets were better. SO, I placed the same bid thinking I would get it. I get blown out of the water when it sells for $5,625.

Lot 11 Was a PSB with a 24 hours dial. I've seen these before but not on a 83. I placed a bid of $800 for it. IT sold at $1062.50. My bid was based on a watch I bought last year at Heritage and won!

Lot 34 was a Samuel Curtis, with what I believed to be a recase. I bid $2000 for it as I won one earlier in the year, for $1,500. It sold for $3437.50. That's a lot of money for a Curtis in today's market.

The one watch I DIDN'T think i would win was the 59 American Grade. I remember when all original ones sold for $13,000. Recased ones sold for $7,500. So i didn't expect to win this one even though I put a bid of $3,500 on it. I ended up getting it for $1,500.

Nothing makes sense - IF you base your bids on past bidding history. Unless the watch is special - and unfortunately who knows what may make a watch special - originality is not always the whole picture. -

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PostPosted: Sat Jan 05, 2019 4:52 pm Reply with quote
KennyHabeeb
Chapter Member
Joined: 22 Jan 2015
Posts: 1021




The Moran was an atypical watch auction, I thought. For one thing, the quality was high throughout. Almost all the watches were in running condition - unusual of itself. I didn't ask Jon because I found out about it late, but I didn't sense a lot of recasing or garbage, and if that is true, then collectors let down their guards a bit and let the bids fly past historical reasoning.

If you had to pay sales tax, like me or Geno, it sucked even more.

kh


Last edited by KennyHabeeb on Sat Jan 05, 2019 11:02 pm; edited 1 time in total
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PostPosted: Sat Jan 05, 2019 8:49 pm Reply with quote
Jon
Chapter President
Joined: 02 Dec 2002
Posts: 26119
Location: Boston, Ma




Geno has a resale number. Tough to buy within your state without one.

The cases were under par and some movements had incorrect dials and WW.

The gilt pieces were off condition and there were recases. There were also several obvious cataloguing errors.

I thought prices were generally strong or right on for what the stuff was.

AsI stated earlier this was stuff from Joe Demesy's coll and inventory sold in NYC in 2 sales 2001 and 2 by Antiquorum.

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Jon "the truth" Hanson
Founder and President of Chapter 149--the leading horological collectors' club!
American Horologe Co -- America's Most Respected Name
SUPPORT ETHICAL PRACTICES IN HOROLOGY--Keep watches original--DO NOT SWITCH, PART OUT OR "CREATE" PW abortions!
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PostPosted: Sat Jan 05, 2019 10:12 pm Reply with quote
KennyHabeeb
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Joined: 22 Jan 2015
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Thanks. It still looked better than a lot of sales I've seen of late.
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PostPosted: Sun Jan 06, 2019 12:07 am Reply with quote
Bryan
Chapter Member
Joined: 29 Oct 2007
Posts: 3490
Location: OH




Any intelligent dealer is going to use relevant comps, don't listen otherwise.

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PostPosted: Sun Jan 06, 2019 12:51 am Reply with quote
KennyHabeeb
Chapter Member
Joined: 22 Jan 2015
Posts: 1021




Right! Everyone uses comps. There is no anchor without comps. Why did Geno pay $5000. for that Moran lot? He likes it $5000. worth. Of course he'd like it even more if he could snag it for half that, or a quarter of that, whatever.

So prices are wacky now? Doesn't mean you ignore the sales around you. No, because you're not going to fork up $5000. for something that other people are only paying $2000 for. Unless you enjoy feeling like a chump.

Stop with the b.s.
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PostPosted: Sun Jan 06, 2019 11:56 am Reply with quote
geno
Chapter Member
Joined: 28 Oct 2005
Posts: 1675




I can agree that a recent comp will get you to the ballpark but it won't get you home. Some need it more than others just a fact. Geno


Last edited by geno on Sun Jan 06, 2019 12:12 pm; edited 2 times in total
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PostPosted: Sun Jan 06, 2019 12:01 pm Reply with quote
geno
Chapter Member
Joined: 28 Oct 2005
Posts: 1675




I also think that it is more relevant to wristwatches than it is to pockets your opinion may differ. When I look at a pocket I know within a minute what I want to pay, not based on searching out comps. Geno
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PostPosted: Sun Jan 06, 2019 12:20 pm Reply with quote
geno
Chapter Member
Joined: 28 Oct 2005
Posts: 1675




If you come to my table at a mart you will not see wristwatches, why is that with all the comps out there for pricing. Simply put I don't get all the nuances and would get screwed on fakes so I stay away. Lack of knowledge makes wristwatch comps meaningless to me. Geno
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PostPosted: Sun Jan 06, 2019 12:51 pm Reply with quote
KennyHabeeb
Chapter Member
Joined: 22 Jan 2015
Posts: 1021




Yea.

Just as I don't bid on Euro makes of PWs no matter how great something looks. But lay a bonafide and good-condition, 19th-century Vacheron on a table for $150., and I'd reach for the cash, because even my skimpy Swiss knowledge base tells me they are worth a lot more than that. I'm not a big Vacheron fan, but I can turn that watch over for a profit pretty quickly.

On the other hand, I'd have to see a good Hamilton 938 selling for less than $300. before I jumped at it because I already have a couple. That's a personal decision, and less to do with recent comps because many Hamilton collectors would pay well more than $500. for one today (and that notion is based on comparable sales in the last couple years).

kh
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PostPosted: Sun Jan 06, 2019 2:14 pm Reply with quote
Jon
Chapter President
Joined: 02 Dec 2002
Posts: 26119
Location: Boston, Ma




Most are forgetting why comps are not always reliable--what kinds of descriptions and photos are presented, do the cataloguers know what they are cataloguing, who pre examined lots or attended the sale, etc., etc.

I never use comps as I know what the market is and what is rare, original, in short supply, the demand, etc., etc. I also know what I want and how much to pay for it.

_________________
Jon "the truth" Hanson
Founder and President of Chapter 149--the leading horological collectors' club!
American Horologe Co -- America's Most Respected Name
SUPPORT ETHICAL PRACTICES IN HOROLOGY--Keep watches original--DO NOT SWITCH, PART OUT OR "CREATE" PW abortions!
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watch estimates
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