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fighting a downward trend
PostPosted: Thu Jan 07, 2016 11:29 pm Reply with quote
Jon
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Joined: 02 Dec 2002
Posts: 25580
Location: Boston, Ma




Ever notice that some of the dealers selling watches on their websites continue to try to flush overpriced, more expensive, recased and recently acquired watches down collectors' throats?

With the advent of 3, 4 or 5 thousand watches soon to flood the market (not including this last year and one half deluge), I suggest that collectors pay better attention to the market, e.g. eBay, auctions, marts, etc. and the like as well as condition factors before jumping into this market. Too many common watches, low end gold, overpriced RR and off condition, recased and switched out watches, plus cheap repeaters can all make for poor decisions.

Add, how many marketeers will pull dollars from their stock market holdings (good or bad) to indulge into more PWs? Time will tell..........

Knowledge is power and cash still remains KING!

As I see it this January 8th.

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Jon "the truth" Hanson
Founder and President of Chapter 149--the leading horological collectors' club!
American Horologe Co -- America's Most Respected Name
SUPPORT ETHICAL PRACTICES IN HOROLOGY--Keep watches original--DO NOT SWITCH, PART OUT OR "CREATE" PW abortions!
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PostPosted: Fri Jan 08, 2016 1:33 am Reply with quote
StephanG
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Joined: 06 Nov 2008
Posts: 4599
Location: Melbourne Australia




Everything is down at the moment thanks to the China woes.
The 5 year Gold chart makes for a very sad read.
But remember you haven't lost anything until you sell.

It's all in the timing.

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PostPosted: Fri Jan 08, 2016 11:13 am Reply with quote
Jon
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Posts: 25580
Location: Boston, Ma




NOT TRUE--coins, guns, certain art and some watches have been bringing RECORD prices!

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Jon "the truth" Hanson
Founder and President of Chapter 149--the leading horological collectors' club!
American Horologe Co -- America's Most Respected Name
SUPPORT ETHICAL PRACTICES IN HOROLOGY--Keep watches original--DO NOT SWITCH, PART OUT OR "CREATE" PW abortions!
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Re: fighting a downward trend
PostPosted: Fri Jan 08, 2016 1:04 pm Reply with quote
mikeh
Chapter Member
Joined: 26 Dec 2002
Posts: 369




Jon wrote:
Ever notice that some of the dealers selling watches on their websites continue to try to flush overpriced, more expensive, recased and recently acquired watches down collectors' throats?

With the advent of 3, 4 or 5 thousand watches soon to flood the market (not including this last year and one half deluge), I suggest that collectors pay better attention to the market, e.g. eBay, auctions, marts, etc. and the like as well as condition factors before jumping into this market. Too many common watches, low end gold, overpriced RR and off condition, recased and switched out watches, plus cheap repeaters can all make for poor decisions.

Add, how many marketeers will pull dollars from their stock market holdings (good or bad) to indulge into more PWs? Time will tell..........

Knowledge is power and cash still remains KING!

As I see it this January 8th.


Thank you!

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PostPosted: Fri Jan 08, 2016 3:49 pm Reply with quote
StephanG
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Location: Melbourne Australia




Jon wrote:
NOT TRUE--coins, guns, certain art and some watches have been bringing RECORD prices!


That is true but it is very hard to predict in advance what those things will be.

I suspect it has a lot to do with current trends or flavor of the month or whatever you want to call it.

I have watches that are worth way more than I paid for them and others worth less. Fortunately I am not in it for profit but if I was me thinks it would be a hard call to pick the winners for 10 years hence.

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Re: fighting a downward trend
PostPosted: Fri Jan 08, 2016 4:57 pm Reply with quote
HOWARD
Chapter Member
Joined: 19 Sep 2008
Posts: 95




Jon wrote:
Ever notice that some of the dealers selling watches on their websites continue to try to flush overpriced, more expensive, recased and recently acquired watches down collectors' throats?

With the advent of 3, 4 or 5 thousand watches soon to flood the market (not including this last year and one half deluge), I suggest that collectors pay better attention to the market, e.g. eBay, auctions, marts, etc. and the like as well as condition factors before jumping into this market. Too many common watches, low end gold, overpriced RR and off condition, recased and switched out watches, plus cheap repeaters can all make for poor decisions.

Add, how many marketeers will pull dollars from their stock market holdings (good or bad) to indulge into more PWs? Time will tell..........

Knowledge is power and cash still remains KING!

As I see it this January 8th.


A very realistic viewpoint well written from someone who has participated heavily in watches and collectibles for 6 decades.

As Roy E. always wrote in his books fair market is a willing seller and buyer. This still hold true and will forever. Commodities, stocks and collectibles fluctuiate and always will; however and from what I gather the large amount of watches for sale in a thin market creates repercussions.

Happy New Year

from Howard

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PostPosted: Fri Jan 08, 2016 5:43 pm Reply with quote
geno
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Controlling your fear and greed is half the battle, the other half is money and knowledge. Geno
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PostPosted: Fri Jan 08, 2016 9:54 pm Reply with quote
Jon
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Joined: 02 Dec 2002
Posts: 25580
Location: Boston, Ma




The super knowledgeable aren't afraid.

_________________
Jon "the truth" Hanson
Founder and President of Chapter 149--the leading horological collectors' club!
American Horologe Co -- America's Most Respected Name
SUPPORT ETHICAL PRACTICES IN HOROLOGY--Keep watches original--DO NOT SWITCH, PART OUT OR "CREATE" PW abortions!
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PostPosted: Sat Jan 09, 2016 12:31 am Reply with quote
StephanG
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Location: Melbourne Australia




Neither are the gamblers.

The true enthuiasts will continue to buy what he really likes at the best price he can manage at the time.

For him the only thing that changes is the number of watches he can afford with the funds allocated.

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PostPosted: Sat Jan 09, 2016 1:19 am Reply with quote
Jon
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Joined: 02 Dec 2002
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Location: Boston, Ma




Knowledgeable collectors don't gamble--it is many dealers and speculators who do! (Jumbo Jet is a gambler and he lost BIG on 4 Watches bought at Bonham #1!)

Not all true enthusiasts have money to collect what they like.

The greater the number of goods that come on the market, the greater the fear; then the market gets depressed and prices drop. If prices drop too far, the cycle begins again (providing the world is still kicking)!

Simple econ 101.

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Jon "the truth" Hanson
Founder and President of Chapter 149--the leading horological collectors' club!
American Horologe Co -- America's Most Respected Name
SUPPORT ETHICAL PRACTICES IN HOROLOGY--Keep watches original--DO NOT SWITCH, PART OUT OR "CREATE" PW abortions!
View user's profile Send private message Visit poster's website
PostPosted: Sat Jan 09, 2016 7:24 am Reply with quote
interstatetime
Chapter Officer
Joined: 03 Dec 2002
Posts: 3262
Location: Indiana




StephanG wrote:

....it is very hard to predict in advance what those things (what will be hot) will be.

I suspect it has a lot to do with current trends or flavor of the month or whatever you want to call it.

I have watches that are worth way more than I paid for them and others worth less. Fortunately I am not in it for profit but if I was me thinks it would be a hard call to pick the winners for 10 years hence.


Why is this different now that it has always been. The internet may make things like trends and flavors of the month change faster but these things have never been easy to predict.

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PostPosted: Sat Jan 09, 2016 10:01 am Reply with quote
Neilywatch
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Joined: 16 Oct 2010
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My attitude is the market will stay depressed because there are more watches than collectors now. Particularly American material.

The European stuff and WW's - because they are better documented will continue to appreciate - but the bulk of collectors are overseas now.

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PostPosted: Sat Jan 09, 2016 10:21 am Reply with quote
interstatetime
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Joined: 03 Dec 2002
Posts: 3262
Location: Indiana




Neilywatch wrote:


The European stuff and WW's - because they are better documented will continue to appreciate - but the bulk of collectors are overseas now.


Funny thing about European/Swiss wristwatches...except for certain companies who made their own in-house movements or the rare companies who kept records the documentation is very poor. Most companies used Valjoux or other generic movement. They had their cases made by several well known case makers. Their dials and hands from other companies. For companies like Heuer, or Universal and many other very collectible watches there are really no records that mean much and since these companies used what was on the shelf there are many undocumented variations. Even for Rolex, which used generic Valjoux 72s in their Daytona fakes are difficult to spot.

Most American watch companies on the other hand made everything but cases in-house....and kept some kind of records.

Truth to tell, perfect documentation is difficult on both sides of the pond.

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PostPosted: Sat Jan 09, 2016 11:00 am Reply with quote
geno
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Nothing better than having thousands of watches to look at and separating the wheat from the chaff, bring it on. Geno
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PostPosted: Sat Jan 09, 2016 11:14 am Reply with quote
interstatetime
Chapter Officer
Joined: 03 Dec 2002
Posts: 3262
Location: Indiana




geno wrote:
Nothing better than having thousands of watches to look at and separating the wheat from the chaff, bring it on. Geno


What Geno said!

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fighting a downward trend
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